Okay, well, let’s turn to the numbers now and bring in poll analyst Philip Fournier to the conversation, the founder and the writer of 338 Canada. Philip, thank you for joining us again. Good evening, Michael. So you know Donald Trump and I want to begin there because he was already having this impact on the federal election campaign, essentially shifting the ballot box question for many Canadians but now comes this tariff threat of 25% on vehicles made outside the United States. How do you think that’s going to affect the.
campaigns. Well, this is a very good question. I think it’s also a very legitimate one but we do not know the answer to this prior for the simple reason that it depends on how the leaders and the parties react to it in January. Michael, when Mr. Trump started his daily attacks on Canada’s economy and sovereignty, we saw the numbers in the polls move but only after we saw the initial reaction of, for instance, And basically saying, We’re not going to stand for that and the first reaction of MRV was, Well, this is just those.
fault and so I think voters reacted to that. Now we’ll see in the coming days how the reaction of the Canadian electorate is regarding the numbers but um, it’s going to have an effect for sure but which way? We’re not sure. Okay, we’ll be watching for that, although you know, as we say that, we should also talk about your latest analysis here because the numbers are a bit gob-smacking. Let’s take a look at the top line here because you currently have the Liberals ahead of conservatives at 41%; the conservatives.
Opinion polling for the 2025 Canadian federal election
At 37%, the NDP is at 9, and the block is at six. The Greens are at three but you know, right, talk to us about the shifting numbers because you know we’re still talking about within margins of error. I think so. What’s the durability of these numbers? Well, I would say that there’s a huge difference between having a four-point gap between the two parties in one single poll or one four-point gap in the aggregate of polls. So this is the average, the weighted average of polling, that sees the Liberals climbing and the conservatives still in the high 30s but.
Suddenly the high 30s is not enough when you have an NDP now in single digits and the Liberals have been the beneficiary of this NDP collapse and so yes, the numbers are still close in the vote count but in the seat count it is not close anymore; this is no longer a tossup, obviously. Michael, be very careful; I’m not making a prediction here; I’m telling you the projection of the day, the numbers we see right now. The Liberals are deep in majority territory with the numbers we have today; yeah, 187. As we take a look at that board right.
Now 187 is what you have the Liberals at, the conservatives at 126, the block down to 23, the NP down to six and the greens down to one seat and I think you know before you went on air you were saying that that’s the kitchen or center seat, uh, so you know when you look at this kind of seat projection, it is still very early on in the campaign, though, Philip. Can we take this to the bank, or is this—is this going to—yeah, exactly. So talk to us about that. I’m glad you—I’m very glad you asked the.
Question: Can we take this to the bank? The answer is no. The numbers have moved so much in the past two months that it would really be a fool’s bet to say they won’t change again now. However, the conservatives, we have to say, went from supermajority territory with around 230 seats two months ago and are now facing very good odds of losing if an election were held tonight and the Liberals went from They were done; they were cooked; they were behind.
Abacus Data Poll: Liberals take lead for the first time in years
The BLKQU in projections is not in Quebec but from coast to coast and now we see them in a good position. This is not a fluke as much as it is a result of tons of data—tons of data from the polls but also regional data that shows that liberals have recovered and are leading in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals have taken the lead in Quebec, overtaking the Bloc. Right now we see the Liberals have an advantage in Ontario and also British Columbia. The collapse of the NDP has really been good to the Liberals lately. You combine all this.
This is a majority for the Liberals if they can hold it. Okay, you talk about Quebec and again the projection currently has the Bloc down to 23 seats but you know, I wonder how closely you’ll be watching Quebec because you know, Mr. Cardin may be enjoying positive reviews right now but in this first week of the campaign, there have been some major questions about his time at Brookfield. More importantly for Quebec voters, he flubbed Natalie Provost’s name, his own liberal candidate and a survivor of the massacre at Le Po.
technique, which Carney mistakenly called Concordia What are you watching there? well okay so these flubs, if they become a pattern, will be a problem for Mr. Carney; that’s that; there’s no doubt about it. However, right now the big buck question is still who can.
