This UBS managing director and senior portfolio manager Jason Katz and JP Morgan asset management managing director and portfolio manager Phil Camper Elli are with us. Well Jason nothing happening today. Uh take all of this put it in the cauldron and what does it bring you? It brings us to the fact that Trump finally is listening to business leaders.
He had the CEOs of Walmart and Costco in his ear and he’s listening more importantly to the bond market and to the dollar because there in lies where you could have systemic risk. He could deal with the pain of the stock market. Phil and I were talking about that in the green room but not so much mucking up the system that could lead to financial crisis 2.0.
So he’s finally listening to the message of the markets and the markets really like it. Phil, I mean you look at the VIX. The VIX is falling. the VIX, of course, the fear index falling to the lowest since April 2nd. We remember what happened. April 2nd was the day that the president announced the big blanket tariffs.
So, what does this tell you here that this really is something that business leaders haven’t liked American business leaders? Yeah. And quite a move, Liz, this this April, right? I mean, it’s just been an amazing month. as you mentioned the last six days S&P up around 8%.Which has been nice and the two things that are most important for us the business leader confidence right if people are walking into the White House and saying we don’t know what to do with capital expenditures with hiring with layoffs that’s that’s a problem but the other piece of this thing is like we have no doubt that Jay Powell is going to make it to May of 2026 when that stuff started to raise its head.
Quando e come presentare il 730 – Agenzia delle Entrate
You know, as as asset allocators, we hate when the stock market goes down and the bond market goes down. I think President Trump hates it even more when that happens because every time that happened, whether it be April 8th or 9th, right, when the market went up almost 10% or last week, you’re talking about bond market. Yeah.
When the bond market sells off, when bond yields go up and people are are really questioning the whether treasuries can provide defense, I think that’s when the president has pivoted. So, I don’t think it’s a stock market put. I think it’s a bond market put that twice this month the president has has exhibited.
Well, and Jason, let’s not ignore what happened with UPS. I mean, UPS basically saying that there were some serious issues that they saw and they they’re concerned. So, as they watch it and everybody’s waiting to see what happens with the China piece of this, how do you invest and maneuver through these I guess little landmines that we see with the markets? Yeah, that’s an understatement.
So, it’s really hard to put a target on the S&P or actually put out earnings estimates from the analyst community when they don’t know what the ENP is. I will share with you anecdotally with my clients who are business leaders or in the sea suite. They’ve seen all this business be pulled forward by that iPhone before the price goes up, buy the cars before the tariffs kick in.
Dichiarazione dei redditi precompilata 2025 disponibile
However, they’re pulling guidance for the forthcoming quarters. So, it’s really hard to navigate after this move where we’ve recouped more than north of uh 8% uh in the market. I think it’s time to sort of take a step back and see how earnings play out before committee JetBlue pulled its guidance too today.
So, I what I’m hearing you say is that this current quarter and maybe even the next one might not give you the clearest picture. I mean, unless they really turn on a dime and really pivot from these tariffs, no, we’re not going to have complete and utter clarity. Phil, where do you go? I mean, you have actually liked some monism and you also like the EA FE, which of course is the Europe, Australia, Asia, and Far East opportunities.
Pre-filled 730 form available, how to download it and
So, in times of uncertainty, Liz, you have to go back to investment principles. So, how we’re trying to build portfolios for the long term, the two things that have worked this year is being internationally diversified. Remember, we came after two years of people thinking diversification was owning seven stocks.
Well, that’s the thing. C. Can I just say that finally what this has done is loosen the death grip that large cap US names, specifically the Mag Seven, had on people’s portfolios here and now they’re going elsewhere. That’s a decent thing, right? A decent thing that’s so hard for asset allocators to compete with, right? Is is why do you want to go out and invest in another part in the world? Then the other thing that’s really showing its its its colors this year is when the stock market goes down, bonds.
Pre-filled 2025 available from today on the Agency website
are supposed to go up. The last time that that happened, Liz, was 2008. People have no idea how to invest when the stock market goes down and bond markets go up. So, I think that has been important again how you build uh long long-term portfolios. Jason, next week, the Fed meeting.
